Executive Summary

Fiscal Q3 2025 delivered modest top-line growth with operating margin expansion: revenue $330.2M (+1.4% y/y), comparable sales +0.5%, restaurant-level operating margin 12.5% (+80 bps y/y), and adjusted EBITDA $21.1M (+14.1% y/y) .
Against S&P Global consensus, revenue was slightly below ($330.2M vs $334.2M estimate*) while Primary EPS modestly beat ($0.04 vs $0.03 estimate*). GAAP diluted EPS was $0.02 (adjusted diluted EPS $0.04) . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
Management reiterated FY2025 guidance (approx. +2% comps; RL operating profit $211–$219M; adj. EBITDA $132–$140M; capex $65–$75M) and lifted buyback plans to $65–$80M after a $75M authorization increase, a key capital return catalyst .
Near-term commercial catalysts: nationwide “pizza refresh” launch (Nov 6) and two seasonal Pizookies (Nov 12) to support traffic and engagement into Q4 and early 2026 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

“Fifth consecutive quarter of sales and traffic growth” and “fourth consecutive quarter of profit expansion,” with Q3 restaurant-level margin reaching 12.5% (+80bps y/y) and adjusted EBITDA margin 6.4% (+70bps y/y) .
Foundational operations and simplification programs drove margin gains (lower comps, better forecasting/scheduling), highlighted by cost of sales at 25.7% (−90bps y/y) and stable labor at 37.1% despite inflationary accruals .
Marketing/value platforms resonated: Pizookie Meal Deal momentum, viral “Spooky Pizookie,” and social/influencer strategy delivering >300% earned media impressions growth and >350% engagement growth y/y .

What Went Wrong

Check compression persisted, driven by late-night mix, Pizookie Meal Deal mix, and continued pressure on alcohol attachment, partly offset by gross margin improvement (+90bps y/y) .
GAAP operating loss (−$1.0M) in Q3 despite y/y improvement, impacted by asset write-downs within operating/other expenses (approx. 40bps headwind) .
Food cost inflation (~2% y/y) in key proteins (beef/seafood) and anticipated mid‑2% overall inflation in Q4; tariff-related cost risks remain a monitored headwind .

Financial Results

Quarterly Performance vs Prior Periods

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$348.0	$365.6	$330.2
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$0.58	$0.97	$0.02
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)	$0.59	$0.97	$0.04
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$35.35	$42.05	$21.12
Restaurant-Level Operating Profit Margin (%)	16.0%	17.0%	12.5%
Cost of Sales (% of Sales)	25.0%	24.8%	25.7%
Labor & Benefits (% of Sales)	36.1%	35.4%	37.1%
Occupancy & Operating (% of Sales)	23.0%	22.8%	24.7%
Comparable Restaurant Sales (%)	+1.7%	+2.9%	+0.5%

Actuals vs S&P Global Consensus (Q3 2025)

Metric	Estimate	Actual	Surprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$334.2*	$330.2	−$3.99*
Primary EPS ($)	$0.03*	$0.04*	+$0.01*

Values retrieved from S&P Global*. Note: Primary EPS “actual” reflects S&P normalized methodology and aligns with company’s adjusted diluted EPS ($0.04) ; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.02 .

KPIs and Operating Data

KPI	Q3 2024	Q3 2025
Comparable Restaurant Sales (% y/y)	+1.7%	+0.5%
Restaurants Open at Period-End	218	219
Restaurant Operating Weeks	2,811	2,847
Share Repurchases (Shares; $USD Millions)	N/A	~996,000; $33.2
Cash & Equivalents ($USD Millions)	$26.1	$25.4
Total Debt ($USD Millions)	$66.5	$89.5
Shareholders’ Equity ($USD Millions)	$370.0	$356.2

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Comparable Restaurant Sales Growth	FY2025	~2% (Q2 update)	~2% (reiterated)	Maintained
Restaurant-Level Operating Profit ($M)	FY2025	$211–$219 (Q2 update)	$211–$219	Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	FY2025	$132–$140 (Q2 update)	$132–$140	Maintained
Capital Expenditures ($M)	FY2025	$65–$75 (Q2 update)	$65–$75	Maintained
Share Repurchases ($M)	FY2025	$45–$55 (Q2 update)	$65–$80 (Q3 update; +$75M authorization)	Raised

Context: Q1 had comps 2–3%, RL op profit $210–$219M, adj. EBITDA $131–$140M, repurchases $45–$55M ; Q2 narrowed to ~2% comps and raised low end of earnings ranges ; Q3 maintained targets and increased repurchases .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 2025)	Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
AI/Technology for Labor Scheduling	Early pilots; improved hours and NPS in TX/CA; plan to scale in 2025	Pilot in ~22 restaurants; plan 20% coverage in Q4	Rollout to ~30% by start of 2026; groundwork for future use cases	Scaling
Value Platform (Pizookie Meal Deal)	Acquisition/frequency; social virality (Platter); strong value halo	Check-building upgrades; Smash Burger added; healthy PMD checks	Growing frequency; check compression offset by frequency; working on add-ons	Durable; evolving
Product Roadmap (Pizza Refresh)	Identified need; testing; quality overhaul	Systemwide rollout in Q4; test uplift (incidents +10–15%)	Launching Nov 6 nationally; premium toppings/dough	Launch; build
Macro/Tariffs/Inflation	~30bps margin headwind scenario; USMCA coverage for 85% of food	Overall inflation ~2%; tariff headwind ~30bps second half	Food inflation ~2%; Q4 mid‑2% overall inflation; monitoring	Managed headwind
Remodels/Prototype/New Units	8 remodels YTD; pipeline build; infill strategy	13 remodels; +7–10 planned; prototype design for 2026	20 remodels in 2025; pilot refreshed prototype; 2 new openings 2H26 target	Continued investment
Beverage/Alcohol Trends	Declining alcohol incidence; broader “total beverage” focus	Value cocktails pulled back; beverage optimization	Continued pressure on alcohol attachment; new seasonal cocktails	Mixed; focus on non‑alc & innovation

Management Commentary

“We are pleased to report our 5th consecutive quarter of sales and traffic growth… and our 4th consecutive quarter of profit expansion.” – Lyle Tick, CEO .
“Our restaurant-level operating returns to 12.5% in Q3… adjusted EBITDA increasing 14.1% to $21.1 million.” – Brad Richmond, Board Director .
“We leaned into the social power of seasonal Pizookies… and continued our journey to improve ‘table stakes’ operations.” – Lyle Tick .
“We will introduce the refreshed pizza platform across the system… taking influences from New York water, Chicago deep dish, and Detroit crunch.” – Lyle Tick .

Q&A Highlights

Traffic acceleration vs benchmarks: driven by foundational operational improvements, social/influencer momentum (Spooky Pizookie), and PMD frequency across cohorts; trailing six weeks traffic ~+3.5% y/y .
Q4 comps cadence: management modeling ~2–2.5% to achieve ~2% for FY2025 .
Pricing power: focus on value equation and category revenue management to drive mix/trade-up; judicious pricing with improving satisfaction/value scores .
Capital returns/leverage: stepped-up buybacks with ample capacity; balancing “dry powder” for remodels and new units .
New unit ramp: pipeline building with concentric market strategy; pilot refreshed prototype; target up to 2 openings in 2H26 .

Estimates Context

Q3 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $330.2M vs $334.2M estimate* (miss); Primary EPS $0.04 vs $0.03 estimate* (beat). 9 EPS estimates and 8 revenue estimates contributed to consensus*.
Implications: Slight top-line shortfall offset by cost discipline and margin expansion; consensus may modestly adjust revenue trajectory while maintaining margin/earnings confidence given reiterated FY guidance . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Mix headwinds persist (late-night, PMD, alcohol attachment), but frequency gains and margin initiatives are offsetting, sustaining profit expansion .
Capital allocation is increasingly shareholder-friendly: authorization up $75M and FY buybacks raised to $65–$80M; expect continued repurchases opportunistically .
Product/marketing flywheel set for Q4/Q1: pizza refresh and dual seasonal Pizookies likely support traffic momentum and engagement; watch check dynamics and beverage attachment .
Operational discipline credible: restaurant-level margin expansion and adj. EBITDA growth broad-based; inflation mid‑2% manageable; tariff risk monitored .
2026 setup: AI-driven labor scheduling scaling, remodel program ongoing, refreshed prototype pilots, and potential re-acceleration of unit growth (2 openings targeted 2H26) .
Trade idea framing: narrative favors margin resilience and capital returns; near-term catalysts (pizza, holiday) could drive sentiment; risk is top-line softness versus consensus and continued alcohol attachment pressure .
Guidance credibility reinforced by recent trends and operational levers; monitor Q4 comps delivery (~2–2.5%) to sustain FY targets .

Notes:

The latest available quarter is fiscal Q3 2025 (ended Sep 30, 2025). Documents for Q3 2026 are not available at this time; analysis reflects Q3 2025 and prior quarters .
All estimate values marked with an asterisk () are from S&P Global; “Primary EPS” reflects normalized methodology and aligns with company-adjusted EPS . Values retrieved from S&P Global.

BJs RESTAURANTS INC (BJRI)·Q3 2026 Earnings Summary